A four-year forecast for new car sales from Cox Automotive reveals a positive trajectory for electric vehicle (EV) adoption in the UK.
The new forecasts provide a first look at the potential growth in the market by 2028, when petrol is expected to represent just under a third (30%) of new registrations as EVs overtake, with a predicted share of 36%.
Despite this falling short of zero emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate targets, it is a positive sign for the industry.
Looking at the changes in the past four years, diesel’s market share has continued to decline representing just over 6% in 2024 – a decrease of more than 2 million units, or a 76.21% drop.
While still retaining the lion’s share, petrol has also seen a reduction, with a loss of 1.4 million units, representing a 26.61% decline over the same period.
Compared to the previous four-year period, the rise of full-battery EVs has been remarkable, says Cox Automotive, with a staggering increase of almost 560%.
Since 2020, approximately 979,000 EVs have entered the market, capturing just shy of 20% of the total market in 2024.
Philip Nothard, insight director at Cox Automotive, said: “The next four years will remain volatile as the sector adapts to economic headwinds and ever-evolving consumer demands.
“We will continue to bear witness to the rise of new manufacturers, including those from China and other international markets, while incumbent manufacturers adjust their in-market strategies. All while the industry responds and adapts to increasingly diverse local and internal regulations.”
The 2025 baseline forecast predicts just over two million car registrations, a modest 1.5% increase over 2024. However, volumes remain 13.3% behind the 2001-2019 average.
Global production of cars and light commercial vehicles has steadily increased and is expected to stabilise through 2025-28.
Source: Fleet News
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